The 2025 Summer Wildfire Season Outlook: June Is Here, And It Looks Like It’ll Be A Rammer.
It’s only June 2nd…..
While crews begin to finalize logistics for the travel up to Canada, the remainder of the United States looks like it’ll be busy throughout the fall. As of right now, Helena, Lolo, Bitterroot, and Pike Hotshots are on reserve for travel up to Manitoba. If these tours are finalized, this more or less cleans out the Northern Rockies of Hotshot crews for the time being.
Flathead is on mandatory days off, Panhandle is in Wisconsin, and Lewis & Clark is down in the Southwest. With the Banana Lake Fire in Plains, Montana kicking off, they brought up Black Mountain Hotshots from Nevada to help with that unexpected fire. There has actually been a fair amount of crew shuffling going on.
Crews in California have been kept busy with multiple small but fast-moving and steep initial attack fires. Fulton Hotshots have been running up mountains for the last 8 days—a good way to break in the boots. I was shocked to see the Great Basin fill crew orders to California this early in the year, but Cedar City and Ruby Mountain shots got the call and are on the ground helping out with the Inn and Jaw fires.
Pacific Northwest crews had been sitting for a while… Prineville shots escaped the PNW vortex and got shotgunned out to the Southwest, while Entiat Hotshots have been cleaning up the steep, smoldering Second Creek Fire.
The Culpus Bridge and Telephone Fires gave a few crews something to chase after yesterday, but 7 shot crews in the PNW still remain available for assignment. Let’s hope this Telephone Fire doesn’t turn out like the last one…
The only crew collecting H-pay in the Southwest right now is Black Mesa on the Reno Fire. It is incredibly hard to believe that there are 24 Hotshot crews in Region 3 right now with no fires to go to. The majority of the Rocky Mountain crews are on days off and about to come back on the boards.
So, looking at that picture, one would think, “Where’s all the action?”
Well, so far in 2025, we are still above the 10-year average for both starts and acreage burned. One look at predictive services shows the expectation of a long, drawn-out rammer of a season ahead.
June:
With the number of wildfire starts already exceeding the 10-year average, it’s only a matter of time until all hell breaks loose unless unexpected precipitation rolls across the west. As of today, we are almost at 50% of the total number of starts from last year; that’s pretty impressive.
45.3% to be exact. And it’s June 2nd. Cal Fire arson arrest notifications seem like a daily occurrence this last week.
July:
Seeing the Minnesota fire danger continuing into July is worth noting, as that’s when the summer rains usually come pouring down. Montana’s timber has seemingly decided this is the year it wants to burn. Idaho went H.A.M. last year, as did Oregon, and now Washington looks as though it’s showing early signs of “hold my beer.”
Wildfire Executive Orders have been signed by Governors in the Great Basin, and the potential remains very high into the summer months. Texas and Oklahoma remain on the map; Alpine Hotshots are just finishing up a roll down there, and California is once again a giant lobster claw of wildfire potential.
August:
I mean, what can I say about the August 2025 potential… If a psychologist gave me this map as a Rorschach test, I would tell them I see blown-out knees, salt-stained shirts, and fat bank accounts.
It might be a very dirty August. Especially if Wyoming joins the party as predicted. Last fall, Wyoming kicked a lot of people’s asses. Almost killed a few as well.
September:
And the grind is expected to continue through September as well.
Hawaii… you ok down there?
It’s good to think long-term, especially if you’re one of the 24 Hotshot crews sitting in the Southwest. It’s setting up to be a hell of a season going forward.
And who knows, if one of the crews decides to make a sacrifice to Big Ernie this afternoon, maybe the big one will pop…
Stay heads up; it’s all going to go at once.
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Don’t forget to mention smokejumper movement, like Redding has a plane load in Porterville! What is the status all the jumpers and helitack?