I’ve worked on the Kaibab Plateau on various forestry projects since 2002. The nature of that landform (generally uninhabited and almost entirely federal land) is that it allows managers to let fires burn for resource benefit pretty often, and at large scales. The cooperative relationship between GCNP and KNF Fire programs facilitates cross boundary RX as well as wildland fire use. Occasionally there are big blowouts such as Warm, Mangum, and now White Sage. GCNP and Kaibab NF know their shit when it comes to fire. Tons of experience. The question I am asking is why the hell wasn’t the lodge and other facilities already prepped adequately? Especially since they sent all the tourists off last Thursday and had plenty of time for project work around the site. This really surprises me and gets my conspiracy theorist mind cranking.
Yeah, like you just covered the chopper incident where they were gonna wrap a footbridge in the middle of nowhere. And we’re leaving the north rim lodge with its tinderbox roof just sitting there? Or what about sprinklers?
Took much of what I was thinking and stated it well... The Kaibab plateau ranks high on locations where Managed Natural Fire opportunities have great chances for maximum benefits. And REALLY, without the terrible lost of Park infrastructure and the Historic Lodge this fire would be just another blip on the radar... But you lost me on the "Conspiracy" theory ??
Inadequate structure protection plans and prep - Inattentive or poor weather forecasting - Lack of accounting or bad interpretation of fuel conditions - Lack of anticipation for the effects of increasing PL's would have on available resources.... All legit questions.... But "Conspiracy" implies "Intentional" or a Bad Outcome being "Well Planned" - Please be clear if making an accusation.
Aside from the major loss and cost to GCNP, the biggest negative is it's another huge setback for the support and acceptance of managed and prescribed fire on our Federal Lands and other areas.... And Really - maybe a major rethinking of certain policy directives in the Middle of Summer ?? Or better data & attention on the effects that the Climate Crisis is having on our Public Lands in the West (instead of dismissing, removing, defunding, and ignoring science) is needed ??
Bottom Line - we need to better figure out, and execute, How, When and Where to do BOTH "Hit'em Hard and Keep'em small, AND allow and fund more Managed and Rx fire on the landscape. Full disclosure - I'm a big fan of BOTH.... But let me make a prediction....It WON'T be Simple.
I think maybe there should be a programmatic review after this season.. similar to the prescribed fire review. There may be commonalities that we can't see when we look at a fire at a time. Also it seems like there are way different approaches among agencies and units within agencies.. do all work equally? What do communities think about different ways of interacting with them? This kind of in-depth review could take awhile but would be ready by next summer.
Hello: I have been studying wildfires and forest history -- mostly in the Pacific Northwest -- for more than 50 years and have a PhD on the topic. I have also written three books and more than 100 articles and editorials about forest wildfires, prescribed burning, and precontact Indian burning practices. I think that recent academic and political claims that wildfire is "natural" and needs to be "returned to the environment" for "beneficial ecological" reasons is destructive propaganda. This fire is the most current evidence, and the Green Fire near Redding is another.
These fires are not "normal" and are a direct result of long-term resource mismanagement. The missing part of this perspective is "people." Yes, fire has been a "natural" part of the environment for thousands of years, but so have people -- gathering and using firewood daily, maintaining relatively fuel-free travel routes along ridgelines and riparian areas, and expertly broadcast burning huckleberry fields, camas meadows, oak savannas, beargrass prairies, and peavine ridges. The amount of fuels in our public forests and rangelands today is historically unprecedented, and the catastrophic wildfires of the past 35 years shows the predictable result of these massive fuel build-ups.
Also, tree counts per acre ("hectare") are greater than at anytime in history, in large part because of industrial reforestation specs used by government foresters, the strategic abandonment of road and trail access, and passive management of ground and ladder fuels. Resulting crown fires typically cause 100% mortality in trees -- including "protected" old-growth -- and in most animals that can't swim or fly. And, following crown fire, there is even more fuel present as trees filled with water are quickly converted to air-dried firewood filled with pitch.
Contrary to recent government redefinitions of "prescribed fire," the actual professional definition in use for many decades is: 1) established boundaries; 2) treated fuels; 3) planned ignition. We can play around with lightning or human-caused wildfires, but this fire -- and many others -- shows the foolishness of this approach over time. Here is my current article on these strategies, coauthored by wildfire expert Frank Carroll: http://nwmapsco.com/ZybachB/Articles/Magazines/Oregon_Fish_&_Wildlife_Journal/20250704_North_Complex/Zybach-Carroll_20250703.pdf
In 2022 the original Dragon Fire went as well as you could’ve asked for from a managed fire. It started 3 miles southwest of Dragon Bravo, began slow with minimal fire behavior. After a couple of days with minimal fire it began to double in size daily, for 4 shifts. Until a monsoon dropping >1/2” of rain showed up and put an end to the management. No mop up required.
The reality that a managed fire on the exact plateau was successful in July of 2022, just 3 years prior makes this even more of a gut punch.
Tim, thanks for the comparison between the 2 strategies and the invitation to comment. Lots of good comments below.
I think the political "reality" is that ALL fires have to be put out as fast as possible. The public sees a fire (actually the media pushes the story above the normal thresholds) and the public demands "Someone should do something!". Politicians love that - license to spend! If you don't spend, then you open yourself up to political attack. AZ governor's comments...
I think the fire-fighting industrial complex is a big thing and if quite a few people are making money off of something being a problem, the "solution" has some built in opponents and nay votes...
My big question in this instance is why weren't the buildings and infrastructure better protected? Defensible space (parking lots, stone, reserve supply of water etc) should have been planned for decades ago and then executed in the 2022 and the current fire. Any info on what the structure protection plans were for those two fires?
Lastly, I have observed when a bureaucracy fails, somehow it gets more money... hmm. In the private sector, the business/person is wiped out and competitors come in to take the market and/or funding...
There is a 3rd strategy. Throw the world at managing it. If you are managing a fire for resource benefit during fire season, then why not have a large organization creating the Altetnate, Contingency, and Emergency lines if the Primary line fails? I can tell you that I know of zero R3 VIPR contractors who were committed to a fire at the time this or the other fire blew out. Most are continuing to sit. I know VIPR resources are not the tip of the spear in some cases, but many are solid and all would be ecstatic to have an order to brush out a contingency line on a managed fire, instead of sitting around waiting to go out of business or to put a bullet in their head (whichever comes first). We don't stay in business if we don't get ordered. Considering we are 100% privately funded until we are ordered, and then we receive a modest daily rate that must be used for 100% of our expenses and to pay off our loans, we are a much better deal than cooperators who are publicly funded, receive reimbursements for 100% of actual expenses, receive back pay to cover their station's payroll when they are gone, receive mileage sufficient to cover depreciation caused by the incident, and then receive an hourly rate that amounts to $1,100 to $2,400 per day in pure profit.
I have an op-ed on this mess coming out in the Arizona Republic tomorrow morning. I called it “Playing with fire” because there was apparently no attention paid to the weekly weather forecast, rising temperatures and drying trends, the proximity of the fire to the only significant infrastructure there, the lack of predicted or established monsoons, or just common sense. It was Arizona. July 4. Old growth pondo pine. Your comments are fine and you’re right; the outcome is the only thing that counts from here forward. The Governor and the public and a lot of us who tried to prevent this kind of outcome for the last 50 years are pissed. 😡 WTH were they thinking? You do a good job of summarizing what they were thinking. And it begs the question, were they staring in the rear view mirror and forgot to look where they were going? The answer is yes, they did. They had everything they needed right in front of them to do the right things and they punted based on fire history and a wildfire use plan that could not independently make the call. It’s going to be hard to recover good fire from this mess and it should be for the reasons Bob Zybach recounts.
“So even though there is some form of drought across 100% of Arizona, maybe the June rains gave a false sense of security. “
This is more like they had a false sense of REALITY.
I don’t think the park service has the capability and capacity to manage let burn fires. They were the hardest hit in reform with the current political agenda.
Any fire manager can do a basic fire behavior run. In this case someone did not do the math or homework of —- what if the fire becomes hotter and drier. ?!
Pyrecast is a platform that can show you the potential of any fire with any percentile of ERC’s. They should have been doing the “what if” game.
**Put in 90th percentile for the severe drought** behave run using elmfire and land fire for the runs.
Having a bachelors degree in emergency management - I was taught to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This fire would have been a red flag from the start literally.
The Federal Government's "discretionary function" exemption from the Federal Tort Claims Act lets agencies act without accountability. Congress needs to hold oversight hearings and ask why and why not? The Dargon Bravo destroyed a national landmark, an iconic hotel on the North Rim because of a modern superstition that Kaibab Plateau ecosystems are “fire deprived.”
Contrary to law “confine and contain” is an unauthorized strategy. The National Park Service Organic Act (16 U.S.C. l 2 3, and 4) and subsequent acts do not authorize the use of fire in the National Park System. Ironically, the NPS Organic Act does authorize timber harvesting and livestock grazing in Section 3. Yellowstone is the exception to the discretionary grazing authorization. Why were these authorizations not used at the North Rim?
Further, annual appropriations law defines wildfires, even a creeping lightning strike, as requiring suppression, if practicable, and Dragon Bravo was practicable to suppress by July 5th. The annual appropriations requirement is: For necessary expenses for fire preparedness, fire suppression operations... first among many Congressional priorities for the Department of the Interior.
The Dragon Bravo Fire was being managed by a T3 IMT until it wasn’t on July 13th. A T3 IMT with minimum staffing does not have an assigned MET, nor an FBA. So, this hard question needs to be asked.
The success of managed wildfires and “controlled” burns are primarily weather dependent. But it is hubris that compels the burners to squeeze out another burning period, hurry it up with firing operations and building an energy release that cannot be controlled after the “genie” has left the bottle and the weather has changed.
And this is the Department that the junior senators from Montana and California want to manage the proposed grandé wildfire agency? More questions to ask!
Here’s another outrage from the Laguna “managed” fire in NM.
Another Facebook comment — Debbie Montoya Vigil
(https://www.facebook.com/debbie.vigil.94?comment_id=Y29tbWVudDoxMTQ4OTkzMzU3MjY5OTQzXzMyNDU0MzE3ODU2MDg1MzI%3D&__tn__=R*F)You burned at least 50 and probably more of our cattle this week. The level of carelessness and the inhumane treatment of our cattle is unbelievable. How could the Forest Service burn an allotment full of cattle in 100 degree heat in July when we haven't received any rain in this area of the state? You completely misled us on what you were burning. There needs to be a criminal investigation.
I have always been of the mindset that no one wakes up trying to f’up on a fire. I definately subscribe and lean more towards more aggressive RX programs but believe we should be doing more in both managed and complete suppression tactics. Of course I am biased and that’s why I started Wildfire Water Solutions.
I’ve worked on the Kaibab Plateau on various forestry projects since 2002. The nature of that landform (generally uninhabited and almost entirely federal land) is that it allows managers to let fires burn for resource benefit pretty often, and at large scales. The cooperative relationship between GCNP and KNF Fire programs facilitates cross boundary RX as well as wildland fire use. Occasionally there are big blowouts such as Warm, Mangum, and now White Sage. GCNP and Kaibab NF know their shit when it comes to fire. Tons of experience. The question I am asking is why the hell wasn’t the lodge and other facilities already prepped adequately? Especially since they sent all the tourists off last Thursday and had plenty of time for project work around the site. This really surprises me and gets my conspiracy theorist mind cranking.
The lodge not being wrapped is a great question
Yeah, like you just covered the chopper incident where they were gonna wrap a footbridge in the middle of nowhere. And we’re leaving the north rim lodge with its tinderbox roof just sitting there? Or what about sprinklers?
Fantastic point.
Took much of what I was thinking and stated it well... The Kaibab plateau ranks high on locations where Managed Natural Fire opportunities have great chances for maximum benefits. And REALLY, without the terrible lost of Park infrastructure and the Historic Lodge this fire would be just another blip on the radar... But you lost me on the "Conspiracy" theory ??
Inadequate structure protection plans and prep - Inattentive or poor weather forecasting - Lack of accounting or bad interpretation of fuel conditions - Lack of anticipation for the effects of increasing PL's would have on available resources.... All legit questions.... But "Conspiracy" implies "Intentional" or a Bad Outcome being "Well Planned" - Please be clear if making an accusation.
Aside from the major loss and cost to GCNP, the biggest negative is it's another huge setback for the support and acceptance of managed and prescribed fire on our Federal Lands and other areas.... And Really - maybe a major rethinking of certain policy directives in the Middle of Summer ?? Or better data & attention on the effects that the Climate Crisis is having on our Public Lands in the West (instead of dismissing, removing, defunding, and ignoring science) is needed ??
Bottom Line - we need to better figure out, and execute, How, When and Where to do BOTH "Hit'em Hard and Keep'em small, AND allow and fund more Managed and Rx fire on the landscape. Full disclosure - I'm a big fan of BOTH.... But let me make a prediction....It WON'T be Simple.
I think maybe there should be a programmatic review after this season.. similar to the prescribed fire review. There may be commonalities that we can't see when we look at a fire at a time. Also it seems like there are way different approaches among agencies and units within agencies.. do all work equally? What do communities think about different ways of interacting with them? This kind of in-depth review could take awhile but would be ready by next summer.
Hello: I have been studying wildfires and forest history -- mostly in the Pacific Northwest -- for more than 50 years and have a PhD on the topic. I have also written three books and more than 100 articles and editorials about forest wildfires, prescribed burning, and precontact Indian burning practices. I think that recent academic and political claims that wildfire is "natural" and needs to be "returned to the environment" for "beneficial ecological" reasons is destructive propaganda. This fire is the most current evidence, and the Green Fire near Redding is another.
These fires are not "normal" and are a direct result of long-term resource mismanagement. The missing part of this perspective is "people." Yes, fire has been a "natural" part of the environment for thousands of years, but so have people -- gathering and using firewood daily, maintaining relatively fuel-free travel routes along ridgelines and riparian areas, and expertly broadcast burning huckleberry fields, camas meadows, oak savannas, beargrass prairies, and peavine ridges. The amount of fuels in our public forests and rangelands today is historically unprecedented, and the catastrophic wildfires of the past 35 years shows the predictable result of these massive fuel build-ups.
Also, tree counts per acre ("hectare") are greater than at anytime in history, in large part because of industrial reforestation specs used by government foresters, the strategic abandonment of road and trail access, and passive management of ground and ladder fuels. Resulting crown fires typically cause 100% mortality in trees -- including "protected" old-growth -- and in most animals that can't swim or fly. And, following crown fire, there is even more fuel present as trees filled with water are quickly converted to air-dried firewood filled with pitch.
Contrary to recent government redefinitions of "prescribed fire," the actual professional definition in use for many decades is: 1) established boundaries; 2) treated fuels; 3) planned ignition. We can play around with lightning or human-caused wildfires, but this fire -- and many others -- shows the foolishness of this approach over time. Here is my current article on these strategies, coauthored by wildfire expert Frank Carroll: http://nwmapsco.com/ZybachB/Articles/Magazines/Oregon_Fish_&_Wildlife_Journal/20250704_North_Complex/Zybach-Carroll_20250703.pdf
In 2022 the original Dragon Fire went as well as you could’ve asked for from a managed fire. It started 3 miles southwest of Dragon Bravo, began slow with minimal fire behavior. After a couple of days with minimal fire it began to double in size daily, for 4 shifts. Until a monsoon dropping >1/2” of rain showed up and put an end to the management. No mop up required.
The reality that a managed fire on the exact plateau was successful in July of 2022, just 3 years prior makes this even more of a gut punch.
Yup, and no one I asked remembered the 2022 dragon fire when I brought it up.
I had a buddy on it. Goes to show, conditions can change. And plans from yesterday that worked, sometimes don’t work today.
Is there an overlay of the areas the 2 fires burned? Does the natural vegetation come back that quickly (2022 to 2025)?
Tim, thanks for the comparison between the 2 strategies and the invitation to comment. Lots of good comments below.
I think the political "reality" is that ALL fires have to be put out as fast as possible. The public sees a fire (actually the media pushes the story above the normal thresholds) and the public demands "Someone should do something!". Politicians love that - license to spend! If you don't spend, then you open yourself up to political attack. AZ governor's comments...
I think the fire-fighting industrial complex is a big thing and if quite a few people are making money off of something being a problem, the "solution" has some built in opponents and nay votes...
My big question in this instance is why weren't the buildings and infrastructure better protected? Defensible space (parking lots, stone, reserve supply of water etc) should have been planned for decades ago and then executed in the 2022 and the current fire. Any info on what the structure protection plans were for those two fires?
Lastly, I have observed when a bureaucracy fails, somehow it gets more money... hmm. In the private sector, the business/person is wiped out and competitors come in to take the market and/or funding...
Informative thank you👍
There is a 3rd strategy. Throw the world at managing it. If you are managing a fire for resource benefit during fire season, then why not have a large organization creating the Altetnate, Contingency, and Emergency lines if the Primary line fails? I can tell you that I know of zero R3 VIPR contractors who were committed to a fire at the time this or the other fire blew out. Most are continuing to sit. I know VIPR resources are not the tip of the spear in some cases, but many are solid and all would be ecstatic to have an order to brush out a contingency line on a managed fire, instead of sitting around waiting to go out of business or to put a bullet in their head (whichever comes first). We don't stay in business if we don't get ordered. Considering we are 100% privately funded until we are ordered, and then we receive a modest daily rate that must be used for 100% of our expenses and to pay off our loans, we are a much better deal than cooperators who are publicly funded, receive reimbursements for 100% of actual expenses, receive back pay to cover their station's payroll when they are gone, receive mileage sufficient to cover depreciation caused by the incident, and then receive an hourly rate that amounts to $1,100 to $2,400 per day in pure profit.
I have an op-ed on this mess coming out in the Arizona Republic tomorrow morning. I called it “Playing with fire” because there was apparently no attention paid to the weekly weather forecast, rising temperatures and drying trends, the proximity of the fire to the only significant infrastructure there, the lack of predicted or established monsoons, or just common sense. It was Arizona. July 4. Old growth pondo pine. Your comments are fine and you’re right; the outcome is the only thing that counts from here forward. The Governor and the public and a lot of us who tried to prevent this kind of outcome for the last 50 years are pissed. 😡 WTH were they thinking? You do a good job of summarizing what they were thinking. And it begs the question, were they staring in the rear view mirror and forgot to look where they were going? The answer is yes, they did. They had everything they needed right in front of them to do the right things and they punted based on fire history and a wildfire use plan that could not independently make the call. It’s going to be hard to recover good fire from this mess and it should be for the reasons Bob Zybach recounts.
Right on Smakey Bare.
The old saying is: "that if a man only has a hammer, everything he fixes looks like a nail!"
“So even though there is some form of drought across 100% of Arizona, maybe the June rains gave a false sense of security. “
This is more like they had a false sense of REALITY.
I don’t think the park service has the capability and capacity to manage let burn fires. They were the hardest hit in reform with the current political agenda.
Any fire manager can do a basic fire behavior run. In this case someone did not do the math or homework of —- what if the fire becomes hotter and drier. ?!
Pyrecast is a platform that can show you the potential of any fire with any percentile of ERC’s. They should have been doing the “what if” game.
https://pyrecast.org/
**Put in 90th percentile for the severe drought** behave run using elmfire and land fire for the runs.
Having a bachelors degree in emergency management - I was taught to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. This fire would have been a red flag from the start literally.
Put the fires out please. Especially you PARKIES.
Thanks for the link. Looks impressive!
Tim, No duh!
The Federal Government's "discretionary function" exemption from the Federal Tort Claims Act lets agencies act without accountability. Congress needs to hold oversight hearings and ask why and why not? The Dargon Bravo destroyed a national landmark, an iconic hotel on the North Rim because of a modern superstition that Kaibab Plateau ecosystems are “fire deprived.”
Contrary to law “confine and contain” is an unauthorized strategy. The National Park Service Organic Act (16 U.S.C. l 2 3, and 4) and subsequent acts do not authorize the use of fire in the National Park System. Ironically, the NPS Organic Act does authorize timber harvesting and livestock grazing in Section 3. Yellowstone is the exception to the discretionary grazing authorization. Why were these authorizations not used at the North Rim?
Further, annual appropriations law defines wildfires, even a creeping lightning strike, as requiring suppression, if practicable, and Dragon Bravo was practicable to suppress by July 5th. The annual appropriations requirement is: For necessary expenses for fire preparedness, fire suppression operations... first among many Congressional priorities for the Department of the Interior.
The Dragon Bravo Fire was being managed by a T3 IMT until it wasn’t on July 13th. A T3 IMT with minimum staffing does not have an assigned MET, nor an FBA. So, this hard question needs to be asked.
The success of managed wildfires and “controlled” burns are primarily weather dependent. But it is hubris that compels the burners to squeeze out another burning period, hurry it up with firing operations and building an energy release that cannot be controlled after the “genie” has left the bottle and the weather has changed.
And this is the Department that the junior senators from Montana and California want to manage the proposed grandé wildfire agency? More questions to ask!
Here’s another outrage from the Laguna “managed” fire in NM.
Another Facebook comment — Debbie Montoya Vigil
(https://www.facebook.com/debbie.vigil.94?comment_id=Y29tbWVudDoxMTQ4OTkzMzU3MjY5OTQzXzMyNDU0MzE3ODU2MDg1MzI%3D&__tn__=R*F)You burned at least 50 and probably more of our cattle this week. The level of carelessness and the inhumane treatment of our cattle is unbelievable. How could the Forest Service burn an allotment full of cattle in 100 degree heat in July when we haven't received any rain in this area of the state? You completely misled us on what you were burning. There needs to be a criminal investigation.
Do you know if sprinklers were used on any of the buildings
I have always been of the mindset that no one wakes up trying to f’up on a fire. I definately subscribe and lean more towards more aggressive RX programs but believe we should be doing more in both managed and complete suppression tactics. Of course I am biased and that’s why I started Wildfire Water Solutions.
Does anyone know if the crews on Dragon Bravo had all the resources available that they expected to have?