Is The Aggressive Initial Attack Policy Working?
A quick look at the numbers say yes... but there is more to the story.
Well, September came in with tens of thousands of lightning strikes and old mining towns burning down in California last night… It was a wild night across the PNW and most of California. Dozens of new starts popped up, and fires that had been ignited during the last lightning storm stood back up.
But let’s zoom out real quick and check in on how the season stacks up against others so far, and what it looks like into the Fall. First, let’s compare this year to last. This time last year, there had been 28,909 fires across the United States… It seems like a lot, but this year there have already been 46,809 fires to date.
Way more fires this year so far.
One could assume that the total acres burned this year must be significantly above average, or at least more than at this time last year, with the increase in fires. Not even close…
With 28,909 fires last year to date, 6,492,031 acres had burned. This year, with 46,809 fires to date, almost double last year's, only 4,142,418 acres have burned. This is a drastic decrease in acres burned relative to the total number of fires. This should raise a lot of questions and also spur conversation about why. I will do a deep dive on the next show, along with Congress’s response to the Bear Gulch Fire incident, and questions about recent high-level terminations in the industry.
But for right now, what are the consequences of this, and what are the benefits? We should all be aware by now that a joint statement was issued by the USDA and DOI regarding wildfires in the spring. Their main goal…?Aggressive initial attack and moving resources quickly off dead fires to new ones.
It’s fairly easy to say this has worked when you look at the total number of fires versus the total acres burned. We are even well below the 10-year average of acres burned by about 1.2M acres, yet we have seen nearly 6,500 more fires than the 10-year average.
This is not insignificant, and while the initial attack response appears to have been effective, there are other factors at play as well. Places like Idaho haven’t seen large incidents like last year… yet. Oregon had a record season last year, adding to the large fire acreage totals. But again, some of this has to be credited to fast IA response to the vast above average number of fires.
Yes, we are at a PL3 nationally, which is kind of crazy for exiting August. On a 10-year average, August sees more PL4 days than PL3. That’s not to say people haven’t been busy. There are plenty of Hotshot crews with some impressive numbers already, as well as some Type 2IA crews. I’ve talked to jumpers who say they have been busier this year than in past years. Helitack is jumping on small IA starts, and some Team members have already hit the annual salary cap. All while at a Preparedness Level 3 nationally, and with an above-average number of fires.
Some private aviation assets are doing well, too. Some posting huge numbers for retardent and water dropped, and monster revenues as well. Arguably, these are all resources that would benefit from a policy of aggressive initial attack, given the year's well above average number of fires, yet acreage is lagging behind what “should be.”
What happened to all the “unprecedented” mega fires? Could this all be chalked up to a policy decision? Probably not 100%, of course, Mother Nature plays a part, but it’s an interesting question to ask.
Not all have been fortunate, however. Some of the most challenging conversations I’ve had over the past few weeks have been with individuals who own wildfire contracting companies. They are struggling.
Fewer long-duration large fires, fewer calls for contractors. And there have been other issues I’ve talked about on the show as well.
Real talk… conversations with these company owners have gone from “man, it’s slow this season, and there are dispatching issues keeping us off fires,” in July, to “I will likely have my belongings repossessed, and other owners are so depressed I’m concerned about possible suicides,” this week.
There are roughly 1,500 contract engines across 418 companies in the United States. It’s usually a cutthroat business like everything else in wildfire. I had a long conversation with the CEO of a large wildfire company, you all know and use their product… and they agreed.
Cutthroat.
That being said, this season has been so rough on contractors that they have banded together to sign petitions and letters to Congress, asking for clarity on what’s been going on. I did an entire show on this, and will cover it again. I can say there are accusations of foul play and alleged collusion, and I have spoken with elected officials who feel this may also be the case. There is a lot going on behind the scenes that I can’t present publicly here, but the outcome of it all may be an economic purge in the contracting world.
You would think that with these above-normal amounts of wildfires, that would usually equate to larger and more intense fires due to a lack of resources and them being stretched thin, thereby bolstering the need for these private entities; however, that hasn’t been the case this year. Sure, certain fires have complained to me about not getting the resources they need, but honestly, that’s something you hear most every year. Is it an issue, sure, but not totally out of the ordinary.
If crews are being kicked off fires and Superintendents are being removed, you can’t be that hurting for resources… right? More on that on the next show.
Currently, there are 15,942 wildland firefighters and support personnel assigned to incidents nationwide. There were 10,000 lightning strikes across California and Oregon in the last 24 hours… maybe September will end up being a blowout in terms of wildfire activity.
So what does Predictive Services say?
September:
The thing that stands out most with these new maps is how much of the Northern Rockies has been reduced in potential. Idaho still has some above-normal potential, and Montana saw a bunch of new lightning starts in the last couple of days, but nothing like what was predicted in the Spring.
Oregon and Washington have definitely woke back up. There are a number of Team Fires now in the PNW, and many of these fires are in “catch it when the snow flies” territory. More lightning came through last night and more is expected. Even Nevada has above average potential, and that will just continue their already busy season.
California has the most potential for September, not entirely shocking, but worth noting. Just in the last 24 hours, lightning fires have been starting up all over the place. And fire weather and Red Flags are expected to pester the region throughout the month.
Last night, California was chasing fires all over the place, multiple went thousands of acres, and the 6-5 Fire in Tuolumne County burned down the town of Chinese Camp, a historic mining town. That fire has burned over 4,000 acres in just a few hours.
My take, set up massive Team fires in California this month and hammer out the work that is badly needed anyway. I know, that’s not very desirable for a lot of folks, but hell… why not? After last night… There are fires everywhere.
I suppose we could pre-position crews in Hawaii and Maine; that might actually be far more attractive for crew members, and by the looks of it, that might be needed.
October:
October may be a California show with a spattering of East Coast Autumn fires. Classic…
It is also worth noting that these predictive maps serve as a guide, rather than gospel. Just look at Wyoming last fall… It was more or less not predicted to have late season potential months ahead of time, but ran into November. It’s all a crap shoot, really, always has been.
There are fair questions to be asked about what we have seen so far this year…
Is the aggressive Initial Attack policy working?
Will we have to do more fuels work if initial attack is working so well?
What does the industry look like if we lose a good portion of contractors?
Will it bounce back if there is a reduction?
Was the market saturated?
Is there a staffing crisis?
Is there an unprecedented wildfire crisis?
Can a policy change reduce the number of acres burned this much?
What else is at play?
I know there are nuanced answers to all of these, and definitely differing opinions. I’ll do my best to break that all down on the next show. Until then, September can always be a curveball month, and it’s when accidents start to happen as minds wander to the wintertime.
Stay heads up, stay hydrated, and stay savage. It ain’t over yet.
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Please, we need an honest discussion about the contributions of geoengineering to wildfires. Even if lightning or arson or hikers in the Canadian woods lights the sparks, could injecting chemicals into the atmosphere be making fuels drier and more volatile?
Lee Zeldin, head of EPA, has finally said the quiet part out loud: that governments are involved and are playing God globally.
Two good places to begin research are https://zerogeoengineering.com/ and https://geoengineeringwatch.org/
“Aggressive initial attack was never a bad idea.” - Smokey Bear.
With that said, here in southwest Oregon, especially on the Rogue-Siskiyou NF - the aggressive IA STRATEGY seems to be working well this season.
This Forest is keeping lightning starts small. It’s using the full array of our diverse, inclusive, and expansive IA tools. Its cooperative partners are all tied in. Not yet this year have we had a long duration, multi-season, extraordinary expensive fire.
It should be noted however, that this strategy (policy?) was enacted prior to the current administration.
For the last several years - especially since most of this Forest’s lands have burned - it became obvious that in this area - you have got to get them quickly and when they are small (what a novel idea!)
Anyway - I see a difference here.
It’s great not having to breathe smoke all summer long.
Ironically and presently, there does seem to be a lot of slash fuels (both public and private) that still needs to be treated; fuels from logging mega fires, and fuels on private lands that are rapidly being cut … due to fear of large fires. Go figure.