If you thought the current state of the world was bad… high potential for world war, election drama, coups in Central America, mass inflation, degradation of our food and water supply, stubbing your toe in the dark, a stinky kitchen sponge that leaves a smell on your hands, and potholes in your street that are deeper than Carl Jung’s writings… just wait until you see the wildfire potential in the new Predictive Services Maps.
But really:
The July map looks like the United States has a bad case of acne due to an unclean diet, unbalanced hormones, and a lack of sunshine. But lack of sunshine is not the problem going forward. It’s summer now, the time for short shorts, big fires, dry winds, and cousins blowing their fingers off with illegally purchased fireworks.
Alaska: It kinda goes without saying if you’ve been tuned into the wildfire world lately. Local fire folks say, “The weather’s been weird up here.” That’s the quote I got from someone helping to usher in all the Hotshot Crews headed that way and that have already shown up. It was a chat about The Reily Fire near the entrance of Denali National Park. Here’s a video of the origin of that fire. It was taken by a fire crew passing by on their way to another fire.
There are a lot of fires in Alaska.
The East Coast was a bit of a shocker to see on there. The Carolinas, Virginias, and all the way up into Pennsylvania have increased potential. The Gulf States are showing higher potential even with Hurricane Beryl barreling down. Its current path shows it slamming into Mexico like a baseball bat hitting a piñata at our southern neighbor’s quinceañera.
In the North American Outlook, Mexico’s potential decreased in July after a very busy and devastating fire season.
Eastern Colorado and Western Nebraska have already seen wildfires in June. The Eagle Eye Fire is burning in the Oglala National Grasslands of Nebraska; it’s kind of a nice fire. The Oak Ridge Fire in Colorado kind of puckered everyone outside Beulah. Small, unstaffed, and slow-rolled lightning fires could go big…IYKYK
The potential is there.
Parts of western Arizona remain high, the Basin will likely get smoked out from Nevada burning, California has a massive grass crop that’s ready to spark up, and PG&E announced they will be shutting off the power this week, leaving people just trying to Netflix and chill asking “You got a light?”
The Public Safety Power Shutoff programs across the West will be in full swing this Summer.
The Pacific Northwest joins southern Idaho in this mess as well. The Coonskin fire in Idaho burned 20,000+ acres recently, and PNW crews are being pre-positioned in their own region. Hopefully, there will be some overtime attached to that.
Hawaii, well… it’s already a volcano. The potential has always been there.
August:
From here on out, it’s just more of the same, but more. The East Coast and Alaska are the only places with less potential than before.
New Mexico jumps back in, which is interesting because parts of that state are currently under flood warnings, and yesterday, there were dozens of swift water rescues. But Dirty August says, “Too bad,” and brings them back into the mix. It might be a very long year for the Southwest.
Texas and Oklahoma also joined in; Oklahoma had a large fire this weekend. Northern Idaho looks to be ready by August, which could get interesting fast. All of the west Desert of Utah will probably be on fire. It’s a popular shooting area, and you will quickly see large fires if the heat doesn’t keep the recreators indoors.
Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest will push the hippies out of their protest trees, and Farmers in Idaho who had their water turned off will see the grass and sage burn all around them.
It should be interesting to see what Northern California does… will they secede and become the State of Jefferson, or will the Klamath, Shasta, and the Redwoods have multiple complex fires going? Smokejumpers had their first jump this weekend up in California.
August is going to be busy.
September:
September tells a very short but important story. It matches August’s potential, and September might get drawn out like a drunken game of Pictionary. You might need new boots by then. You might have sand covering everything by then, even though you haven't seen a beach once, except in a mirage while on a desert nuke fire in Nevada.
Be aware… people are going to snap this September.
Watch Idaho… it might get nasty. I won’t know what to think if Arizona and New Mexico are still going in September. If this is the case we will have a major resource strain right as the pay cliff hits.
That is unless Congress passes the permanent fix this summer. Anyone taking bets?
October:
The Fall season out East is no surprise. Arizona and New Mexico are… Trick or Treat on the Tonto with torches?
I get it; it’s a long way out to predict what exactly will happen, but the fact it’s even being considered is crazy. It needs to be understood by those not in fire: All the Southwest Hotshot crews are easily shut down by now, and many of the crews nationwide are shutting down or considering it at this point.
Southern California and Hawaii could have fires pushing all the way into Thanksgiving. I’ve been on Santa Barbara fires on Christmas Eve; it can happen.
It might be a long season, like baseball…. so buckle up and prepare for that reality. Overtime and hazards will be plentiful. Stay heads up.
It’s only July 1st... but it’ll fly by.
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